larrygreenberg @ March 30, 2013 # Comments Off
Short-term interest rates remained ultra-low in the first quarter of 2013. The Federal Reserve retained an aggressive program of quantitative easing, while the Bank of Japan prepared to undertake an even more forceful monetary stimulus under new …
larrygreenberg @ September 29, 2012 # Comments Off
Aided by monetary stimulus, most long- and short-term interest rates fell during the third quarter including in September. Impressive stock market rallies happened in 3Q except in Japan where the Nikkei lost 1.5% on balance. The dollar fell…
CalculatedRisk @ December 10, 2011 # Comments Off
This was a light week for economic data and most of the focus was on Europe.
The good news included fewer initial weekly unemployment claims, an increase in consumer sentiment and an increase in rail traffic. However the ISM non-manufacturing index w…
CalculatedRisk @ December 9, 2011 # Comments Off
The Department of Commerce reports:
[T]otal October exports of $179.2 billion and imports of $222.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $43.5 billion, down from $44.2 billion in September,
revised. October exports were $1.5 billion les…
larrygreenberg @ November 30, 2011 # Comments Off
November had uncanny parallels to October. Most of October had seen a rise in risk appetite and associated weakness in the dollar and strength in equities, and in most of November just the opposite had occurred. Former Greek Prime Minister …
CalculatedRisk @ November 25, 2011 # Comments Off
According to Bloomberg, Brent Crude is down to $106.40 per barrel, while WTI is up to $96.77. The spread has been narrowing for over a month, especially following the recent announcement of a partial reversal of the Seaway pipeline to transport crude …
CalculatedRisk @ November 13, 2011 # Comments Off
On Friday, Goldman Sachs economists expressed concerns about two potential negative shocks for the U.S. economy:”We are particularly concerned about two potential negative shocks— one of which has already materialized to some degree. First, a worsen…
CalculatedRisk @ November 12, 2011 # Comments Off
The drama in Europe continues to overshadow the U.S. economic situation and the European financial crisis continues to pose the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economy. See from the NY Times: Europe’s Woes Pose New Peril to Recovery in the U.S.
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CalculatedRisk @ November 11, 2011 # Comments Off
Yesterday I commented that I thought Europe was probably already in a recession. Since then I have received a number of questions about this comment, especially asking about a recession in the U.S.
First, I do not follow Europe nearly as closely as t…
CalculatedRisk @ November 10, 2011 # Comments Off
The Department of Commerce reports:
[T]otal September exports of $180.4 billion and imports of $223.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $43.1 billion, down from $44.9 billion in August, revised. September exports were $2.5 billion mo…